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Today China increased its tariff to goods from the US to 125%. This is in response the tariffs Trump introduced yesterday on Chinese goods.

Stock markets have tanked, bond markets are dropping and surprisingly the US dollar is dropping. All 3 are going to start having a serious impact on the US economy in a very short time.

With the tariffs at this rate, virtually all trade between these 2 superpowers will come to a halt. I can only imagine the enormous impact it is already having on many companies in both those countries.

How long can this carry on? The US buys so many of its products from China and so many US companies manufacture their products in China. What will happen?

If the US dollar continues dropping, will people buy its debt? How will the US continue servicing the interest on its debt? The rate at which the US dollar is dropping is going to erode its status as a reserve currency for the world and its safe haven status. Both these will have devastating effect on the US economy in the long run. The interest the US will have to pay to borrow is going to shoot up to levels which will wreck havoc on its economy.

In Singapore, many companies have factories set up in China to manufacture their goods. If they don’t export to the US that’s fine. But if they do, then they will have serious difficulties.

Banks which have lent to these companies will have to consider their financial viability. Also if banks have lent to finance setting up plants in China, Vietnam, Cambodia or Loas, then they must be worried about the financial ability of these companies to repay with the tariffs so high.

Pain has to be felt within the US before Trump will reverse course. When will that happen?

Shocking that a US Vice President can label people in China as Chinese peasants.

Absolutely no grace, diplomacy or tact. What has happened to the art of diplomacy or statecraft with this current administration, In so many respects China is so far ahead of the US. Their infrastructure, advances in technology etc. What is wrong with these MAGA lots there in the US? Have they all gone crazy?

if China were to stop buying US debt and dump their existing holdings what will happen to the strength of the US dollar. Also since the US is running a deficit, if China stops buying US debt, how will the US fund their economy I wonder

Once again Trump has blinked. After watching the stock market collapse in the US and warnings by economists and banks of the near certainty of a US recession, Trump paused his tariffs on almost all countries except China for another 90 day period.

The stock markets swung up on this news and in any other dimension surely someone will wonder if anyone was using any insider information to make huge monies on the stock and bond markets.

What looks to me like a panic reaction to collapsing stock prices is branded by Republicans as brilliant negotiation skills. I fail to see any intelligence in any of the recent actions on tariffs by Trump.

I think it was the fear of a stock market collapse, fear of recession in the US, huge discontent within the US on the impact on higher prices on everyday goods and the fear of a coordinated tariff strike back by all the other countries that caused Trump to back down.

However he has maintained his tariffs on China because it is “ripping off” the US. I wonder if this is an attempt to isolate China from the rest of the world.

In any case, this is only a 90 day pause. How should countries respond? Negotiateor hold back and see? Perhaps form alliances with other countries in the meantime?

Whatever happens, the US has shown itself to be a utterly unreliable trading partner and ally. The loss of credibility is immense and I wonder if the US will ever gain the trust and confidence of other countries ever.

Today I learnt that for humans there are only 5 personality traits that apply across the board. Each of the traits are classed over a spectrum or range rather than just simply yes or no to each. These personality traits are different from personality types, which we hear about so often eg Type A or Type B, which are “either-or”.

The 5 traits are as follows;

Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism and Openness.

A person high in conscientiousness is organised, disciplined, reliable, goal oriented and plans well. Whereas a low conscientiousnes person is disorganised, procrastinates, not goal oriented and spontaneous.

A person high in extraversion is outgoing, likes social interactions, likes being around people and energetic. A low extraversion person is reserved, likes solitude and doesn’t like social interactions much.

A person high in agreeableness is cooperative, likes harmony, trusting, compassionate and empathises. A person low in agreeableness is competitive, skeptical, confrontational and blunt.

A person high in neuroticism is reactive emotionally, anxiety prone, has mood swings, worries a lot and has doubts about everything. A person low in neuroticism is calm, stable emotionally, less stress prone and resilient.

A person high in openness is open to new things and experiences, enjoys art and culture, is creative, curious and open to abstract concepts. A person low in openness is routine oriented, prefers familiarity, is conventional and is more traditional.

Are these traits genetically ingrained in us when we are born or do we pick these up as we are growing up and watching our parents, friends and society. Or is it a combination of both? Do they change over time? Can we change them? How? Is a high in each trait necessarily a good thing? What should the balance be?

I am curious. I have just started this course and and I am keen to understand this. Can knowing these traits really predict behavior?

I see in myself a bit of each of these traits and I am not sure which part of the spectrum of each trait I fall into. I think at different times, with different people and on different occasions I react differently. Is that a bad thing? Can I call that adaptability? Is being agreeable all the time good? Isn’t being neurotic sometimes not a bd thing? Does knowing about these traits help me be a better person?

As a further update, in addition to the 5 personality traits, there are 3 motivators of behavior in humans. The 3 being affiliation motivation, achievement motivation and power motivation. On each of them, we are motivated to different degrees. But being motivated may not be sufficient if the corresponding trait is not there. Hmmm…

It was while watching Oppenheimer, the movie, that it struck me that in the early 1900s and up till the Second World War, the center of learning in the world, especially in the sciences and maths was actually Europe and not the US.

Of course now every well to do Chinese or Indian parent and increasingly some well to do Singaporeans are doing whatever they can to ensure that their children end up in the best universities in the US. To this end, a number of them send their kids to good boarding schools in the US as early as 14 to better their chances.

Oppenheimer was born in the US. In the 1920s, he studied chemistry at Harvard and did well. But to advance further in physics, he had to go to Europe. He initially went to Cambridge but later studied at the University of Gottingen in Germany to do his PhD in theoretical physics.

Germany then had Gottingen University, University of Berlin and University of Munich. All top class universities and then considered the best in the world. France had ENS Paris and University of Paris. Switzerland had ETH Zurich. Holland had University of Copenhagen. UK had Oxford and Cambridge. These institutions had the top names in science and mathematics working and teaching there and they were involved in cutting edge research in new fields in mathematics and physics. The Nobel prize winners then were all coming from these universities.

Of course Germany’s downfall came with the rise of Nazi Germany in 1933. Many of the leading scientists who were Jews fled Germany. Einstein was a German Jew who fled to the US. The murmurings of war in Europe and the fear of German invasion led to scientists in the other European countries to also flee Europe.

US realised the importance of high level research in sciences and in particular in mathematics and physics by 1920s. They accepted that they were far behind advancements in Europe and in particular Germany. Princeton and Caltech started attracting researchers from Europe with good positions and grants and freedom. The rise of Nazi Germany and the Second World War provided the impetus for the top brains to leave Europe and the US has not looked back since.

China has since the early 2000s wanted to be a world class player in the field of cutting edge science. They have made a huge effort to attract top chinese researchers from US and Europe back to China with grants and positions. The negative attitude in the US towards top chinese researchers and the fear that they are stealing research and spying for China has led to them being ostracized there. This has encouraged the exodus from the West.

Of course China has its own peculiar problems. They country is so protective of its research that if you are a leader in your field, you are restricted from traveling outside China, even to attend conferences and deliver papers. Even top Chinese students in schools are discouraged from going abroad to study nowadays.

Singapore is in a strange position. We have had top scores in the world for our primary and secondary education for years. Yet we are nowhere in terms of original research in sciences and mathematics. We have not had a world class artist, novelist or musician. Strange that for a country which invests so much in education, we have not been able to stand out in any significant field. We have compulsory education, motivated parents who invest time and money in their children’s education. And yet nothing. I wonder why. Is there something wrong with our education system?

Is it because our education system is still based on a system that was set up in the 1960s and which was originally geared to producing a working class to do manufacturing jobs for foreign companies which the government was attracting here? And is it because we have not evolved significantly from that model of education? I cannot imagine schools to be very different from how they were when I was studying. Class sizes and subjects taught are still the same.

With Trump in the White House and cracking down on certain universities such as Columbia and cutting off funding for any courses in some topics such as climate change, gender diversity etc, Europe senses that this may be the best time to lay down the red carpet and attract top researchers from the US. A large number of researchers are increasingly disillusioned with the politics in the country and the views and acts of those in power. They are finding open arms awaiting them European universities.

Perhaps history will again repeat itself in the reverse direction?

So it’s election season again and the main stream media and social media are filled with election related news. Everyday new candidates are introduced.

I wonder if now is the best time to call the elections for the ruling party.

In 2015, elections was held in the immediate aftermath of LKY’s death. The outpouring of “grief” and gratitude to the founders generation ensured that the ruling party scored almost 70% then.

In 2020, election was held just after Covid broke out. The ruling party must have thought they would do well as the people were afraid then of the future and at that time, political and economic stability was important. Social distancing rules and mask wearing made campaigning difficult for the opposition. Surprisingly the ruling party only managed 61.24%.

Issues such as cost of living, property prices, car prices, employment related issues, immigration related issues, general economic conditions, the conflict in Gaza and some own goals are going to make this even tougher than 2020 for the ruling party.

People I speak to are generally negative about the current state of affairs in Singapore although I confess I have no idea where the sentiments of the heartlanders are.

Can the current tariff war be used to warn people that they are going to be in for a rough ride and they therefore need to vote carefully? Not sure the common man would understand the implications of tariffs.

The Worker’s Party has been quietly working the ground and they have picked up some good new candidates. I think they will do well.

The new PM will want very much to make his mark and bring in his new younger team. Pity it is not the best of times although the current state of affairs is not of his doing. Just hope he doesn’t get the blame if they do not do well.

Just read that a Indian Cabinet Minister created an uproar over his remarks at a tech event to Indian start ups to create AI and tech like the Chinese instead of ice cream and more food delivery apps.

In his scathing remarks he said Indian start ups were pandering to the wealthier people who didn’t want to leave their homes by having young people do back breaking work to deliver goods and food to them. No economic benefit to the country whatsoever.

This is exactly what I told my Indian friend after my China visit. I said that China is so far ahead in tech such as EVs, telecom devices, wireless technology, battery technology and AI. I had visited India and then China in the same month and the contrast was telling. India is so far behind in technology and AI and that is quite shocking. No Indian companies involved in high speed train, no manufacturing of high end phones, no EV car companies and Indian AI to date. I do wonder what is their current state of weaponry.

They are not lacking in smart people who are technologically savvy. Some of the top US technology companies are run by Indians. They have money that can invest in these companies. They have a decently well educated population and English conversant. Yet why are they reticent to do it? Are they not worried that they are falling far behind?

What would it take India to start moving up the innovation and AI ladder?

Today I received an invite code for Manus AI.

This is another AI product launched by a Chinese start up and this time it is an AI agent. An AI agent is one which carries out a range of tasks given to it, independent of human intervention.

Manus tells me that it can do research and compile research reports, do data processing and data analysis, write in depth articles, reports and research papers with citations, create websites and web applications, help automate workflows and navigate websites and fill out forms.

It’s in beta mode now but they have already launched a commercial product at US $39 a month which can perform 2 tasks simultaneously.

So I downloaded it just now and to test it, I asked it to tell me about the usefulness of elections nowadays (this being the election season). In 8 minutes it did a 26.63 KB detailed paper on this.

Wow. With products like this very soon why would one need to spend time researching and writing articles anymore? You can just work on the draft provided by an AI agent and ask it to beef up areas that you think you want brushed up. Scary.

I do have to say that at his point in time, the Chinese are probably ahead in terms of trying to incorporate AI into their products for everyday use. All their big companies are vying to get AI into everything they do and sell. In the Western world you see AI products launched but no mass scale adoption yet. People hear all the hype about AI but so far it  has had no impact on ordinary people. Let’s see whether and when it happens.