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Historically drug prices are the highest in the US. Even for the same products available in other countries, US has been paying more. Most of the pharmaceutical companies do not manufacture their drugs in the US and the US ends up importing them. India has a big trade deficit with the US because it exports a lots of pharmaceutical products and drugs, including generic drugs to the US. Singapore, I just learnt, falls into that category as well.

There are several reasons for this. One the US can afford it. There were and are many rich people there who can afford the high medical fees and drugs. Their insurance companies and Medicare are prepared to pay high prices to the pharmaceutical companies for the drugs. This is eventually funded by higher premiums paid by US citizens and the US government which funds Medicare. This premium charged to the US has allowed the pharmaceutical companies to fund their research and innovation in this field.

Trump has now come up with 2 ideas to bring down the drug prices in the US.

One is for the high tariffs on imported medical products and drugs into the US. Whilst the immediate impact would be to drive up the prices of drugs in the US, including the prices of generic drugs, Trump says this would eventually force the pharmaceutical companies to start manufacturing these drugs in the US. Whilst it may be difficult to sort out the established supply chains currently in place and it may not make sense for the manufacturing of the cheaper generic drugs, it may make sense for the pharmaceutical companies to move manufacturing for the higher end drugs and products to the US.

I can understand the frustration. The biggest consumer market is paying the highest prices for the products in the world and does not have any high end manufacturing capabilities in their own country.

The second idea which was announced this morning was that Trump would sign a directive today directing that the US will only pay the lowest price the drug companies charge for the same drugs to the other countries.

This will have a huge impact . Currently the cheapest prices charged are for the drugs sold in the poorer parts of Africa and Asia. And if the US is only prepared to pay the same price as what these countries are charged, several scenarios are possible.

One, the pharmaceutical companies refuse to sell to the US at these prices and the supply of drugs in the US dries up creating a outcry there. Possible but can that go on for long? The US is also the biggest buyer and how long can the stand off last? The pharmaceutical companies will also lose out on their biggest market.

The other is that to appease Trump, they bring manufacturing back to the US and negotiate to bring down the current high prices to a more manageable level. I think this is what will eventually happen. There will be lower drug prices in the US and more manufacturing will take place there.

But to offset the lower margins from the US market, the pharmaceutical companies will end up increasing the prices of drugs everywhere else. We may bear the brunt of this as we are seen as able to pay. It’s like how we end up paying so much more to watch the World Cup than our neighbors simply because we are small and seen as able to pay whatever is charged.

The other is that countries which currently do manufacturing of pharmaceutical products and drugs may see the manufacturing from their countries move to the US.

In that respect I did not realize the potential impact on Singapore. In 2022, pharmaceutical manufacturing contributed to about 4% of our GDP and is about 13.7% of our total manufacturing value add on. Total employment arising from this industry alone is 24,000 skilled jobs. All the top pharmaceutical companies have manufacturing facilities here

So if any of this goes to the US, we will feel the impact.

One of my colleagues had purchased this SUV, a Zeeker 009 some 3 months back. His version was a dual motor car and now the single motor version has arrived.

I test drove this car today. Superb specifications and very high tech. It has napa leather seats with massage functions, air suspension and a range of 600km. With 30 Yamaha speakers and a very fast wireless charger. Very comfortable drive. And it costs $323k. Much cheaper than my i5 which has lower specifications with no air suspension!

At this rate, who would want to pay more money for a car with lower quality? The Chinese cars will dominate the EV car market.

Yesterday was this day trip. A rather interesting experience. And since I have not been to JB in ages, I decided that I would go along on this trip to experience what JB is like now.

There was a time when I used to go to JB regularly. I would go there to eat, buy things and pump petrol, even on a Saturday. I remember there was an occasion when I went up to JB with 3 other colleagues for lunch and came back to the office by 230pm. Strange how getting through the causeway was such a breeze then.

Anyway the arrangement was for an Alphard to pick us up from the office at 11am. Cleared the Singapore and JB immigration fairly efficiently, although there was a big bit more traffic on the JB side.

One group went to the KSL mall where they apparently have fresh keropok and local cakes. Another group went to have a massage. I went to the Megamall to have lunch. Lunch was dim sum. I thought it was rather expensive but perhaps it was the duck and the char siew that jacked up the price.

Thereafter we went to the Aeon Mall. Nothing much there except there was a Mr Sotong store. They are only in JB and they are popular, selling sotong and dried fruits. I bought some dried fruits, apricots and bentong ginger. Shall try them this weekend!

Instead of going to this mall, the other option was to have durians. But I didn’t feel that I could eat durians after lunch and still have dinner so I gave that a skip. Some of them went. I was told it is between seasons and so the durians were not of the top quality.

Dinner was at Senibong Bay Seafood restaurant. I would recommend this place. Very good food and well priced. Food came quickly and so we managed to leave the restaurant by 830 pm.

There was no jam on the JB side but a bit more traffic on the Singapore side. The drop off was my house which I reached by 945pm.

The cost of the car with the driver is $350, and if you have a party of at least 4 it’s well worth the trip!

Enjoyed my day!

Last night marked the coming into force of this FTA. Since I am part of the Singapore Mexico Chamber of Commerce, I was invited to the event organized by MTI at the Fullerton Hotel.

The FTA is apparently a 28 volume document and is meant to cover trade with Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico. As only Chile and Peru have ratified it so far, it has come into force vis a vis them. Mexico is expected to ratify later this year.

I must confess I don’t know the details of this FTA but clearly FTAs are going to be fashionable in the foreseeable future.

But was good to catch up with friends!

Democracy has been defined as the right of a citizens to choose who governs them. It appears to be a Greek concept and the word is derived from 2 Greek words demos, meaning people, and kratos, meaning power. Its origins are in the city state of Athens from about 300 BCE. Presumably learned people would gather, hear ideas, debate, listen to different points of view and then decide. So power belongs to the people who would have the right to choose their leaders. But even then it appears not everyone was equal. This right to choose was not given to women, slaves, foreigners and children. Even by this time it was noted that democracy would work in a small state with smaller number of people exercising their choice but may cause chaos or a breakdown in a larger state or with a larger group of people making decisions.

As opposed to democracy, there was autocracy, which is the absolute right to rule and govern, independent of the choice of the people.

Monarchies fall into this category. In England, the monarchs initially had the absolute power to rule, start wars, confiscate property and deprive people of their life and liberty. There was a revolution against this and eventually absolute monarchy was abolished. Instead a Parliament, elected by the people was given the right to pass laws and govern. But even then in the UK, the right to vote to elect members to Parliament was only given to property owning males. This restricted to voting group in England to about 10% of the people living in the country.

So as a result of colonisation, democracy was gifted to the colonies upon independence. We have therefore inherited this.

By the various suffrage movements in the late 1990s, the right to vote eventually was universally extended to everyone who was a citizen irrespective of gender, age, race, education, employment, wealth or properly owning, whether they pay taxes, served in the army or length of time they had been citizens.

But is everyone really equal? We know they are not. Everyone is different. Their contributions to the country and community are different. Some serve and contribute much in terms of time and money. Others receive. Some raise families and bring up their children to be good citizens and others don’t. Some make it a point to keep abrest of what’s happening in the world and in their country and the impact of various events around the world and others have no clue and make no effort to know anything. Some people read and think deeply about issues and some just focus on social media. Some serve in the army with relish and some try to avoid it. Some are law abiding and others are not.

If this is the case, then should everyone be treated equally when it comes to voting?

In his book, George Yeo notes that LKY had thought about this and suggested that married Singaporeans be given 2 votes instead of one. Presumably being married would make them think more responsibly about how they exercise their vote. Not perfect but an idea.

George Yeo then wrote to Cabinet to suggest that everyone above 18 be given one vote. But when the person is married or has a family, he or she would have 2 votes. This would revert back to 1 when they turn 50. Again an idea and in my view also not perfect. And it seems no one in cabinet was in favor of this.

A good friend told me that on election day, he saw some people arriving at the polling station in such a state that it was so clear to him they had no idea why they were there or what they were doing. Another good friend sent me a picture of a Singaporean doing something so bizarre and wondered whether everyone having one vote was the best way to elect members to Parliament. Should a person who can’t exercise basic common sense or intelligence even be given a vote.

This is controversial. The idea of democracy in its perfect form was meant for a smaller group of people with commonality in their thinking, race, education and status. If there is a vast difference between the people in a country in terms of education levels, economic strengths, contribution levels to society and perhaps even race, would this work? What if in such circumstances, the elected are held to ransom by the masses and the only way to then get their votes is to appease them with populist moves which may not be in the best interest of a country?

So where do we go from here. Status quo? Start a discussion on this?

appeasemebt

Caught up with 2 separate group of friends yesterday and the day before.

Interesting. They wanted more opposition members in Parliament from a certain party. They have certain specific individuals from the other opposition party they definitely wanted to win. There was a certain member of the ruling party they dislike so much they wish he lost. They felt a bit down by the results. One said he went to sleep early because he didn’t want to go to bed depressed. There was no euphoria with the PAP win. A few said they were depressed by the results.

What an interesting state of affairs. The PAP government has been in power since 1959, that’s 66 years. Continuously. A friend from India mentioned that even in India, the Congress Party, which was at the forefront of the fight for independence for decades, and was so entrenched into the fabric of India when India became independent in 1947, lost power after 46 years.

In the UK, governments change regularly every 10 years or so. US has a change of Presidents from the different parties all the time and even in Malaysia, the BN, which was so dominant since independence, lost power.

Would anything move the needle here? Is the reluctance to change because of our people, our system of government, our education system, or is it because the party is so good and it has delivered on its promises to the people and ensured economic prosperity and good basic services and therefore no one wants to change it?

Politics worldwide is heading in a different direction. Perhaps best illustrated by recent elections in Canada and Australia. The incumbent parties, from the opinion polls in January this year, were certain to lose power. They were given a less than a 3 % chance they will be re elected to power. So people clearly didn’t want them and didn’t like their policies. Trump comes in with his rhetoric and tariffs and suddenly there is a backlash against the right leaning parties in both these places. The left leaning incumbents won handsomely. So within 3 months a complete change in outcome. People’s views there changed because of a change in circumstances. Within a quick period of time. And they are prepared to act on it with their vote.

Are we a very different people or is the party so good that no one wants a change? But are there consequences to a lack of change…..?

The elections are finally over and the results are in.

Against the expectations of most people, the PAP obtained an improved 65% share of the votes. The number had been expected to drop to the high 50s.

A number of close fights that were expected did not materialize. BP turned out to be a non event. West Coast was the same. Overall PSP did badly and they lost their 2 NCMPs. This is going to be a big problem for them as the 2 NCMPs gave them profile and voice in Parliament. That is gone.

WP did alright. It maintained its total number of seats and was very close in 2 other seats. But everyone was expecting them to do much better. In addition to their 10 seats, they also get the 2 NCMP seats, which will give 2 younger WP members a chance to do well and profile themselves.

So what happens now…This was a strange election. People had so many issues they were complaining about. Even the PAP was afraid that this was not the best of times to go into an election. Despite all this, they improved their vote share.

Are there any lessons to be drawn from this or are we just sui generis? Is such a state of affairs good in the long term for a country? Does it matter anyway?

Today is voting day. I left home at 730 am to pick up my mother. It started raining very heavily on the way there. I couldn’t even see the roads as I was driving there.

On the way, I went to Casurina Curry to buy roti prata for her. I got totally soaked. Picked her up and we voted at St Nicholas Girls School.

Very efficient. At that time no one was there because it was still raining. Done in 5 minutes. Unlike the bottleneck in 2020.

Now to wait for the results.

Today is cooling off day.

When I was growing up, there was no such thing as a cooling off day. You voted immediately after the campaigning was over.

Then someone decided that it would be a good thing to have a cooling off day, when there would be no campaigning, before the election took place. The idea was to take the day off to reflect on everything you read, heard and saw during the campaign before you voted.

As I sit here today, I don’t understand the rationale for this. And I don’t think it makes any sense. I cannot see anyone sitting down today, quietly reflecting on what happened over the last 9 days, and the deciding how to vote tomorrow.

Anyway its in the rules and therefore no campaigning. Everyone is instead speculating what the results will be like tomorrow.

Are we in for a surprise?

Yesteday was a pre election day catch up breakfast for our group.

We met at 8am at La Levain at Hamilton Road. We talked about nothing else but the upcoming elections, the candidates and the likely scenarios. All of us have been or are still involved in community work. We all exchanged our individual predictions for the PAP vote share. All of us were within a 5% margin.

We shall catch up after the election to celebrate the one who was the closest to the final outcome!